Primaries leading up to the November 2026 Midterm Elections will begin on March 3rd. Primaries will decide on general election candidates not only in crucial US House and Senate races but also many governors and other elected officials throughout the country. It is time to start paying attention!
The primary contests this year are particularly significant for many reasons.
- President Donald Trump is not making it a secret that he does not want Democrats to win any races – and he and his sycophants will do almost anything to ensure that result. The ways in which these anti-democratic actors are attempting to hang onto power, as we have noted before, include Executive Orders, decimating the Civil Rights Division, widespread anti-DEI efforts, and reducing polling places in minority areas. Therefore, Americans must brace ourselves for these illegal and unconstitutional tactics and prepare to vote (and help others to vote) when the time comes.
- A number of off-year elections across the country saw not only large voter turnouts but also stunning victories by Democrats and democratic initiatives (such as the gerrymandering vote in California).
This is very encouraging – voters are not being intimidated, and they are sending unmistakable objections to Trump’s totalitarian efforts. This momentum must continue. - If Democrats at the national level take only a few seats in the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson – the Speaker of the House who helped orchestrate the longest government shutdown in history AND kept the House out of session for over seven weeks to prevent a Democrat from taking her seat – will most likely be replaced by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). Jeffries has been a masterful successor to Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) as he has held his caucus together on numerous significant issues and also worked successfully, throughout his legislative career, with his Republican colleagues. Among his many accomplishments in House leadership roles: he helped pass the American Rescue Plan, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act.
- Until recently, most watchers have felt that the Senate will remain in GOP hands after November. However, given the momentum of the No Kings demonstrations, the off-year Democratic successes, the drastic falling-off of Trump’s poll numbers even on issues with which he has usually been strong, his erratic stances toward international issues, and other factors, several Senate races may be able to go blue (see below). If Democrats take both the House and the Senate, Trump’s momentum will be drastically curtailed – to the benefit of our democratic republic.
- Similarly, when Democrats regain power, it is highly likely that at least some of the people who have broken our laws under Trump (and often under his orders) – including lawyers – will be prosecuted.
- In a number of situations, it is the states that have been protecting the rule of law.
Governors, Attorneys General and other office holders in blue states have been pushing back wholeheartedly against Trump’s lawless initiatives – and winning in court.
The bottom line is that the drastic changes that Trump and Company are trying to force on us (using, let us remember, Project 2025 as their blueprint), are not favored by the majority of us.
Let us, then, look at the significant primary races taking place in the next four months that will shape our country in vital ways. In Part I we will examine three states that have primaries in March; we will consider the rest, which have May and June dates, in Part II. We will also report early March results in our next post.
North Carolina: March 3
North Carolina is a significant state for a number of reasons, and many Americans are familiar with the stories that emerge from the state. With a state legislature overwhelmingly controlled by Republicans, NC has passed highly restrictive abortion laws. In addition, NC has an active ban on gender-affirming care, HB808, which “prohibits the initiation of any gender-affirming care in North Carolina for people under the age of 18, including puberty-delaying medication, hormone therapy, and surgery.”
NC has also been in the news because of its redistricting efforts. In November 2025, a federal three-judge panel ruled that the state could use a redrawn congressional map that is deliberately designed to flip the state’s only swing seat to the GOP. The seat is currently held by Democratic Rep. Don Davis, an African American; this “District has been represented by Black members of Congress continuously for more than 30 years.” Davis’ contest, then, may well become one of the most competitive House races in the US. The GOP candidates are State Sen. Bobby Hanig, Army veteran Laurie Buckhout, divorce attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell, and Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, all white.
Republican Senator Thom Tillis has become a well-known figure in recent months as he has broken from the Trump narrative at times, vehemently criticized Kristi Noem and Stephen Miller, and announced his retirement. The race to replace him is likely to become one of the most contested and expensive in the country. Democrats are supporting two-term Gov. Roy Cooper, who has raised almost $18 million in 2025. One of the main GOP challengers is former RNC Chair Michael Whatley, who has been endorsed by Trump.
In state politics, “The most powerful Republican in the state Senate is facing the toughest primary challenge of his career.” That race pits Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger (R-Rockingham) against Rockingham Sheriff Sam Page. Berger has been the General Assembly leader for over 20 years; there is a lot on the line for Republicans in this primary contest.
Texas: March 3
Texas is always making news in some way or another. Its primary races will have nationwide consequences, so they are important to consider, and early voting began on February 17. Like some other states, Texas uses a runoff system; if no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary, the runoff will take place on May 26 between the top two vote-getters.
The Senate race features several candidates on both sides that are fairly well known across the country. Current Republican Sen. John Cornyn is seeking a fifth term. One of his main competitors in the primary is outgoing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Cornyn, who has fairly consistent MAGA credentials, has recently remarked, “If Ken Paxton is the nominee, we could well experience a massacre and the first Democrat elected since 1994 in the state of Texas.” We will see some of the the reasons for Cornyn’s assessment when we discuss Paxton below.
On the Democratic side of the Senate race, many Americans have become familiar with vocal Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico. Crockett, a former civil rights attorney and state representative, “built her national profile with a candid style and viral moments on Capitol Hill.” When Trump called her a “low IQ person,” Crockett volunteered to take an IQ test against the president. She has also traded insults with former Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and has had heated exchanges with GOP Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina. Crockett has been vocal in her support of Ukraine, LGBTQ rights, gun control and diversity, equity, and inclusion. Respect for her among fellow Democrats in the House can be shown by her various leadership roles, such as Vice Ranking Member of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform (House Committee on the Judiciary) and Ranking Member on the Subcommittee on Oversight (House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform).
James Talarico has an interesting and fairly unique background, which makes him attractive to a certain type of voter. A former middle school teacher in San Antonio, Talarico “stands for progressive policies and Christian values,” including pitting himself against billionaire mega-donors. Talarico is a member of the Texas House LGBTQ Caucus, has been outspoken against Christian nationalist views on religion in schools, and supports reproductive health and transgender rights. Talarico recently completed his Master of Divinity degree from Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary – while serving in his representative role. He recently came into national focus when his interview with Stephen Colbert was canceled by CBS. Colbert instead aired the interview on The Late Show’s YouTube channel. It seems that Democrats would do well with either Crockett or Talarico.
The Texas Governor, Republican Trump-supporter Greg Abbott, has made headlines on a number of issues for almost two decades. As Attorney General (2009–17), Abbott filed more than 30 lawsuits against the Obama Administration. Since that time he has veered even further to the right, signing one of the most restrictive immigration bills passed by a state in 2017; authorizing the building of a border wall in 2021 (construction of which became limited after challenges); and, in 2022, beginning to bus migrants to various sanctuary cities, including Washington, DC. Further, Abbott has led initiatives to greatly restrict abortion and to allow guns to be carried in public places without a permit.
Hoping to challenge Abbott in November is Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, a civil rights and union lawyer. She has made her mark in part by holding corrupt politicians accountable and fighting for public schools. When she first ran for the House in 2016, she “won a 7-way primary outright without a runoff.” She helped pass HB 3488 (85R), her corporate reform bill to create Public Benefit Corporations in Texas. The other Democratic contenders for Governor are Chris Bell and Bobby Cole.
The office of Attorney General has proven to be extremely important when Trump has been President (both times): many Attorneys General in blue states have brought numerous lawsuits against the Trump Administration on behalf of their states’ citizens (with the Democrats winning many of those suits). In the case of the Texas AG, readers may be familiar with Ken Paxton, who has been embroiled in a number of controversies, such as being impeached by Republicans in the state House (the Senate declined to go along) and being investigated for securities fraud (there was a settlement). He is proud of having sued Democratic presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden roughly 150 times combined and for backing Trump’s Big Lie about voter fraud in 2020.
Since Paxton is running for Senate, he needs to step down as AG, leaving the GOP primary open for others. 
These include US Representative Chip Roy, a conservative known as an obstructionist and limited government absolutist, who periodically breaks with the GOP, even to the extent of maintaining that Trump exhibited “clearly impeachable conduct” on January 6, 2021. On the primary ballot, Roy is up against Mayes Middleton and Joan Huffman, both state Senators, and Aaron Reitz, a former top DOJ official.
On the Democratic side in the AG race are Nathan Johnson, Joe Jaworski, and Tony Box. Johnson is a state Senator, elected in 2018, and a lawyer at Thompson Coburn LLP in Dallas. With bipartisan support, “he has become a leading voice in healthcare, the electrical grid, government transparency, criminal justice, and state infrastructure.” As of mid-February, Johnson was leading in Democratic polls.
Over the past few election cycles, Democrats have been chipping away at Republican dominance in Texas. The whole nation is watching what Texas voters will do.
Illinois: March 17
In Illinois, several primaries are especially noteworthy.
Long-time US Democratic Senator Dick Durbin, 81, is retiring after having been elected in 1997. Ten Democrats and six Republicans are running to succeed him. The three leading candidates on the Democratic side include two US Representatives – Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi – and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton. With Kelly retiring to run for Senate, a number of Democratic contenders for her seat include Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. and State Senator Robert Peters.
Current Democratic Governor JB Pritzker is running for a third term. Pritzker has become nationally known for his attacks on Trump, including the invoice he sent Trump seeking to refund Illinois more than $8 billion following the recent 6-3 Supreme Court ruling that Trump’s tariffs are illegal. Pritzker had earlier pushed back against Trump when he planned to send National Guard and federal agents to Chicago for immigration enforcement. Pritzker will face the winner of the GOP primary; the candidates are Darren Bailey, Ted Dabrowski, Rick Heidner and James Mendrick. 
Bailey lost to Pritzker in 2018 by almost 13 percentage points. It is interesting to note that “Republicans have been shut out of all statewide offices in Illinois” since Pritzker’s 2018 victory. However, Democrats and independents who might want to support him cannot, of course, be complacent when it comes to voting.
In addition to the House and Senate races mentioned above, other US House primaries are important due to resignations and the sheer quantity of candidates. A sampling includes the 7th, 8th and 9th Congressional Districts. In the 7th, Rep. Danny Davis is retiring, and 13 Democrats are on the primary ballot; two GOP candidates are also vying for the seat. In the 8th District, voters will choose between eight Democrats or four Republicans. In the 9th District, Rep. Jan Schakowsky is not seeking reelection, opening that race to “a staggering 15 Democrats” and four Republicans.
Some hopeful signs
One significant positive with all this activity is that the democratic system is, on its face, working; the fact that so many Americans are jumping into the fray and seeking elected office is highly encouraging. Among the goals of totalitarian regimes are to make citizens feel that they are powerless, that their votes do not count, and that only the authoritarian leader has wisdom and can solve problems. The willingness of citizens to defy this trend should give us all hope. However, we voters have our work cut out for us to educate ourselves about the candidates, what they stand for, and the issues at stake; it is work well worth doing to preserve our system.