Primaries to Watch: Part II

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In Part I of our examination of upcoming primaries, we looked at Illinois, North Carolina, and Texas, since those elections were coming up in March. The results are now in for NC and Texas (the Illinois primary is on March 17). Democrat Roy Cooper, who is very popular, will go up against Michael Whatley for NC Governor on November 3, and James Talarico beat Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic primary for Senate in Texas. On the GOP side in Texas, current Sen. John Cornyn will face outgoing AG Ken Paxton in the May 26th runoff; the winner of that very expensive contest will face Talarico on Election Day. In the District 1 House race in NC, it will be Laurie Buckhout (Republican) against Democrat Don Davis. The Page-Berger contest in the NC State Senate race is undergoing ballot counting, since the voting is so close, and will probably result in a recount.

Also in Texas, the redistricting efforts “ordered” by Trump and undertaken at his direction by obedient Republicans have led to “the first incumbent defeat of this cycle” – GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw. Unlike many of his colleagues, he had voted to certify the 2020 election. So the redrawn district favored his competitor, state Rep. Steve Toth. On the Democratic side, outspoken Rep. Al Green’s seat was redrawn, and he is now in second place, leading to a runoff. The Republicans are not reaping benefits from the redistricting that they thought they might have. “In the five districts where Republicans made new lines to try and gain more seats, … more Democrats [showed] up to vote in some of these primaries than Republicans… That is a red blaring alarm bell for Republicans.”

In the Texas governor race, Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa will face Gov. Greg Abbott. Hinojosa, from the Austin area, faces an uphill battle, but her candidacy offers voters a true choice.

Big political headlines had been made in Georgia was the resignation, mid-term, of former Trump supporter, GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. While the primary is set for May 19, Greene’s resignation forced a special election on March 10. None of the candidates received 50% of the votes, so the top two will face a runoff on April 7, with the winner holding the seat until the end of the year. Clay Fuller, the Republican supported by Trump, received 34.9% of the vote. But this was second place after Democrat Shawn Harris, a retired Brigadier General in the Army, who earned 37.3%.

This is significant. The district is deeply red – “Georgia’s most Republican district,” according to the Cook Political Report – yet Harris, campaigning on a platform of economic and veterans’ issues, gas prices, and other kitchen table issues, earned the support of not only Democrats but also independents and some Republicans. The runoff election and, if Harris prevails, the Nov. 3 election, will be very important contests not only for Georgia but for the country as a whole.

Greene’s seat was not the only special election on March 10. In the 94th District, two Democratic women – Venola Mason and Kelly Kautz – will go head-to-head in the April 7 runoff. In the 130th House District, Democratic former state Rep. Sheila Clark Nelson will participate in the April 7 runoff against GOP candidate Thomas McAdams.

There were also primaries in the deep red state of Arkansas – no surprises there.

Here we will look at primaries being held in May and June, alphabetically by state.

California: June 2

California is always active politically, and 2026 will be no exception. One of the major contests is that of governor, since outspoken anti-Trump Democrat, Gavin Newsom, is term-limited. Currently 10 Democrats are vying for the position, including Rep. Katie Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell, and billionaire Tom Steyer. A challenge for Democrats with so many candidates is that votes could be split between them, thereby possibly putting Republicans in the apparent lead in the race. “In California’s top-two primary, the two candidates who receive the most votes move on to the general election, regardless of party, leading some Democrats to be anxious that two Republicans could advance.” In a recent poll, Swalwell was leading among likely voters with 14%, but that is a statistical tie with the top two Republicans, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco. There is a lot of ground work for Democrats to do to win the governor’s race.

The state’s congressional delegation to Washington of 52 members is overwhelmingly Democratic, with 43 members. All Representatives are up for election; neither Senator (Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla), both Democrats, are up for reelection. Speaker of the House Emerita Nancy Pelosi, who represents San Francisco, holds a seat that younger Democrats, in addition to Republicans, will want to win as Pelosi steps down. Among the Democrats are Saikat Chakrabarti, 39, a former tech executive and progressive who backs universal healthcare and childcare and favors a ban on stock trading for members of Congress; and state Sen. Scott Wiener, 55, who “authored a recently passed bill banning federal and state law enforcement from wearing masks” and is also working to address California’s housing crisis and expand climate action.

Candidates for many other positions abound. One candidate for US House on the Democratic side is Lateefah Simon, who replaced Barbara Lee in the Bay Area when Lee was elected mayor of Oakland. Simon is making a name for herself as “a leading voice on criminal justice, disability rights and civil rights.” Younger Democrats are emerging to challenge longtime legislators for a number of positions. One of these is Sacramento City councilmember Mai Vang, 40, who is challenging incumbent, long-serving Rep. Doris Matsui, 80. Vang, the daughter of Hmong refugees, has had legislative and organizing success in areas such as children, education, safety, and language access. California voters have a lot to consider over the next few months!

Georgia: May 19

In addition to the special elections on March 10, Georgia will have other primary races. Jon (Thomas Jonathan) Ossoff, who made headlines in January 2021 with his runoff defeat of Trump-supported David Perdue for US Senate, is up for reelection. Ossoff, 39, who is the first Jewish member of the Senate from Georgia, has had success working on bipartisan legislation on a number of issues: protection of children online; strengthening public safety; tackling the opioid epidemic; investigating unsolved lynchings and Civil Rights murders; strengthening mental health care services for veterans; and fighting corruption in American prisons. Ossoff has also worked diligently to attract thousands of advanced manufacturing jobs and billions of dollars of investment to the state.

Georgia will also have elections for attorney general, secretary of state, insurance commissioner, labor commissioner, state superintendent of schools and two seats on the public service commission. In Georgia, runoff elections are required when primary candidates do not receive 50 percent of the vote or more. If candidates do not meet this requirement on May 19, runoffs will take place on June 16.

Iowa: June 2

Iowa is generally a very red state, but with the retirement of GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, voters have a chance to change the scenario. Names to watch include Nathan Sage, Josh Turek, and Zach Wahls on the Democratic side and Ashley Hinson for Republicans.

In addition, the Cook Political Report has two of Iowa’s four House seats as toss-ups. The most competitive for Democrats are Districts 1 and 3. In District 1, Christina Bohannan, a law professor and former state legislator, lost a tight race in 2024 to incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks; Bohannan comes into this race with name recognition, campaign infrastructure, and familiarity among donors. In District 3, Sarah Trone Garriott, a state senator representing part of the Des Moines metro area, has been endorsed by former Iowa House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst, showing a willingness to consolidate the party.

Kentucky: May 19

One of Kentucky’s main claims to fame is that it is the home of longtime GOP stalwart and former Senate Majority Leader, Sen. Mitch McConnell, who is finally retiring after 40 years. We must never forget some of his infamous actions that have greatly harmed our nation.

There are almost two dozen candidates seeking to replace McConnell. Probably the best known among the Democrats is Amy McGrath, who ran against McConnell in 2020, after having raised $94 million for her campaign. As the first woman to fly a combat mission for the US Marine Corps, she became known even earlier through her 2018 run against 6th Congressional District Rep. Andy Barr. Barr is now among the Republicans seeking McConnell’s seat; McGrath had given Barr the closest race he had faced in his 14 years. Many Americans know her through her appearances on MSNBC and MS NOW, frequently speaking out against US Secretary of Defense (War?) Pete Hegseth.

Other names that are fairly prominent in Kentucky politics include Republican US Representatives Thomas Massie (4th District) and James Comer (1st District). Comer is a well-known Trump supporter; as Chair of the House Oversight Committee he holds a great deal of power. He ostensibly seeks to fight waste, fraud and abuse, but what he actually does – on Trump’s behalf – is to find ways to go after Democrats, such as reversing Biden-era actions, subpoenaing the Clintons, investigating the Biden family, and seeking information about Trump from federal agencies (e.g., the FBI and NARA) in order to prevent Trump from being held accountable.

Massie, who has a libertarian bent, has been one of the few GOP critics of Trump’s moves, so he faces a Trump-supported challenger, Ed Gallrein, a veteran of the Navy SEAL special operations force. Massie spoke against Trump’s big ugly bill and was among those who championed the Epstein Files Transparency Act, initially opposed by Trump. Trump does not hesitate to attack Massie and his family. This is an interesting race to watch.

Louisiana: May 16

One of the major races in Louisiana is the Senate contest, with GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy, a doctor, up for reelection. Cassidy, who is supportive of vaccines, had nevertheless voted for Robert F. Kennedy’s nomination for Secretary of Health and Human Services. Following the abrupt ousting of Susan Monarez as Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Cassidy’s support of Kennedy has cooled. Cassidy has recently asked Kennedy to appear before the Senate Health Committee, but that has still not been scheduled. Cassidy was one of the few Republicans who had voted to convict Trump in 2021 during the Senate’s impeachment trial, so he has run afoul of Trump at several levels. Cassidy is being challenged in the primary by Trump-supported US Rep. Julia Letlow.

On the Democratic side, there are candidates but not much momentum or hope – either in the Senate or the several House races. Louisiana remains primarily red. However, in the February 7 special election in House District 60, Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez “handily defeated Republican Brad Daigle,” resulting in the Democratic National Committee stating that Martinez had “won in a district that President Donald Trump carried by 13 points in the 2024 election.” In addition, Martinez won 55% support from white voters on election day, and turnout among Black voters “increased from 27% during the early voting period to 37% on the day of the election.” This shows that, in Louisiana along with other historically red states, there is possible movement for left-leaning candidates in the future.

Ohio: May 5

Ohio is always a critical state in US elections. On the Republican side, there are contests for governor, secretary of state, treasurer, and Ohio Supreme Court. Democrats will make choices for US Senate, secretary of state and attorney general. (There is also US Senate activity for the Libertarian Party of Ohio, between Jeffrey Kanter and Bill Redpath.)

Americans will no doubt recognize the name Sherrod Brown, who is running again for US Senate, this time against Sen. Jon Husted; Brown lost to Bernie Moreno in 2024, and Husted holds the seat left vacant when J.D. Vance became Vice President. Brown is well-known for his progressive stances on abortion, same-sex marriage, affirmative action, gun safety, the Affordable Care Act and Medicare reform.

The race for governor is also noteworthy. Outspoken Trump supporter US Rep. Vivek Ramaswamy is among four other GOP primary candidates. Ramaswamy, a wealthy entrepreneur, may be softening some of his earlier far-right rhetoric, but there are watchers who have their doubts about his sincerity. On the Democratic side, Dr. Amy Acton, former Ohio Department of Health Director, has won the endorsement of the United Auto Workers, due not only to her union support but also her advocacy of healthcare for all, affordability and good-paying jobs. Ohio is a GOP-dominated state, so it will be interesting to see if the No Kings movement, Trump’s low approval levels, recent international events, and the negative impacts of Trump’s policies on everyone except the very rich will have any influence on turnout and/or democratic inroads.

Final Thoughts

Every primary and every election in our country is important. In this primary season, it is essential to the survival of our democratic system that all eligible citizens make sure they are registered to vote, educate themselves as to the issues and candidates (and know in advance how they can vote and, if necessary, where, given what the Republicans did in the March primary in Texas), then make sure they vote. Every vote in every primary and every election counts.

If Democrats win significantly in November, we will have a great opportunity to start to regain some of our traditional momentum as a country. But we also know that Trump and his cronies will do everything possible to hold onto their power. They will try to claim vast voter fraud, they will probably inundate social media with disinformation, they may encourage violence against officials and others whom they dislike, they will most likely try to use the authority of the federal government (unlawfully) to seize ballots to “recount” the results in their favor, they will probably flood the courts with spurious lawsuits, and they will start the process of disempowering the 2028 presidential election. There seems to be no limit to the egregious tactics that right-wing actors will try in order to force things to go their way.

Most of us hate this state of affairs. Vast numbers of Americans are sick and tired of fighting these blatant power grabs. However, we must be strong in the face of these challenges, we must be fearless, we must have faith that we are on the right side of history, we must be in community with others of like mind, and we must have hope that our republic will survive.

 

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